Daily Report —
Bitcoin and Market Update (May 25 2020)
Kolin Lukas —
HTF 1W:
Weekly closed as a very bearish candle itself with first sign of weakness per bearish bar on TK histogram. Momentum still bullish, no bearish cross as of now, which still officially remains in strong uptrend long-term.
Bearish week closed exactly at MA50 support. Closed at the same time below the long-term downtrendline support, which locally invalidates the bullishness and may or may not be the early reversal sign. Next weekly support is 8100 of monthly low that should work as a strong support. If 8100 broken then 7.3–7.4k is likely next. There’s 7600s CME breakaway gap to be filled as well. Lowest support on the chart is 6000 MA200. I don’t see that happening for btc to go below that. I am still bullish-oriented for long-term and the way I read the chart now is simply first early sign of weakness.
HTF 1D:
Daily closed as very bearish candle cutting through local support of 8.8k and closing below it and below 50% mid-range support of 9.1k. Momentum is bearish hence MTF correction is here (not long-term one). Seems EOM and June would be corrective consolidation more than straight bullish. 78.6% of retracement marked at 8524, which if broken would result in tapping into range lows support 8–8.1k. MA50 support is 8.3k, which MAY be support that would make Higher Low and still save the triangle — triangle is not truly broken down until breaks down the range lows
Middaily closed very bearish candle rejecting MA50 and following my previously mentioned bearish scenario. 8–8.2k is support cluster for MA100+MA200. Momentum in oversold area yet no signs of reversal here as of now. Momentum being here in oversold area is not encouraging for shorts so well anymore. Breakdown below local support is clean, while most recent session closed as weak spinning top candle with little push from bulls, showing not too much interest in buying these levels after breakdown. There is a chance to catch shorts around 9000 on the breakdown retest still — best when momentum trades above oversold area. Local bullishness can only be brought back if we break above the diagonal resistance above and reclaiming MA50 at 9220. Unless that happens low 8000 is more likely.
MTF trading in oversold area for momentum after breakdown of diagonal support at 9000. Currently on the edge of losing MA200 uptrend support. Already broken down but still fighting over rejection of the lost level. Shorting currently is considered risky with momentum in oversold area. Momentum strategy suggests shorting only bearish crosses above oversold zone. Strongest resistance point is 9050.
Hourly clearly picked my bearish scenario given last Saturday. Currently clean breakdown and retest sequence. MA200 strongest resistance is 9.35k. Currently MA50,100,200 trending down which confirms short-term bearishness. Momentum hoovering around the oversold area, which if combined with previous charts analyzes, appears that it’s technically very tricky area to short. Next stronger support below is 8100. Bullish scenario can only be locally saved by actual fake-out — break back above lost diagonal support and MA resistance of 9100. Unless that happens we are looking down.
